State Climate Change Strategy Is in the Works
Little action thus far at local and regional levels
California’s plan to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions significantly has captured attention worldwide. Less well known is the effort by State agencies, coordinated by the Natural Resources Agency, to hammer out a comprehensive Climate Adaptation Strategy to help California prepare for the unavoidable changes. Strategies are being developed for six sectors: biodiversity and habitat, infrastructure, oceans and coastal resources, public health, water, and forests and agriculture. Early drafts of each of the strategies are online at www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation; a draft for public comment is expected in April. The strategies will guide state policy-makers and resource managers to incorporate climate change impacts into their policies and planning. Some State agencies have already begun this process; the Coastal Conservancy, for example, is developing criteria to help staff evaluate proposed projects both for their greenhouse gas emissions and their vulnerability to climate change impacts.
Most land-use decisions are made by local or county agencies, but few so far have devoted much attention to preparing for global warming, sea-level rise, and other extreme effects of climate change, according to a November 2008 survey by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Two exceptions are the San Francisco Bay Area and the City of Arcata, in Humboldt County. “The Bay Area is very vulnerable to sea-level rise,” said Ellen Hanak, director of research for PPIC. The Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) helped raise awareness about this issue, she said, by creating and publicizing maps that show what areas are expected to be inundated. Of the 80 (out of a total of 109) Bay Area cities and counties that responded to the PPIC survey, 60 percent reported some level of analysis or discussion of expected impacts, compared to only 36 percent of the 310 jurisdictions (out of a total of 535) responding statewide.
In the San Francisco Bay Area, Marin County and San Francisco are among jurisdictions beginning to incorporate adaptation to sea-level rise into their planning. Marin’s 2007 countywide plan contains provisions for mapping areas at risk for flooding, monitoring ocean and bay levels, and incorporating sea-level rise into planning for future development. In San Francisco, the Public Utilities Commission is studying measures to protect its wastewater system from increased flooding.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is conducting a major flood-control and habitat-restoration study for southern San Francisco Bay, in collaboration with the Coastal Conservancy and the Santa Clara Valley Water District. Sea-level rise projections are being factored into the Corps’ assessment of flood risks and protection strategies for that low-lying region. Meanwhile, BCDC is working with the San Francisco Estuary Institute and several agencies to develop a regional sea-level rise adaptation plan for San Francisco Bay.
Along the North Coast, Arcata has been a leader in proactive planning for sea-level rise. In 2002, after witnessing increasing impacts from storms for several years, “we realized we couldn’t be putting our heads in the sand,” explained Mark André, the City’s director of environmental services. The City’s general plan now requires that potential sea-level rise be considered for all future development in coastal areas.
Arcata’s city planners created inundation maps, using various sea-level rise scenarios, to assess which areas were most vulnerable. They discovered that one key piece of infrastructure threatened was the City’s wastewater treatment plant at Arcata Marsh, so the levees protecting the buildings and treatment pond will be raised. Arcata has also been buying and restoring diked former salt marsh around Humboldt Bay to alleviate flooding, with the help of the Coastal Conservancy and others. “We were lucky to have bought out agricultural lands around the bay in the last decade,” André said.
In San Diego County, the San Diego Foundation’s Focus 2050 Study, published in November 2008, laid the groundwork for a comprehensive countywide response to expected climate change impacts, Hanak said. Using models and maps developed by researchers at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, the study found that some of the region’s most popular beaches and surrounding neighborhoods could be flooded, including portions of La Jolla Shores and Mission, Coronado, and Imperial Beaches. The study also analyzed the impacts on the San Diego region of higher temperatures, water and energy shortages, increased wildfires, public health risks, and species loss.
In future studies, the Foundation will take a more detailed look at expected impacts to coastal infrastructure, from roads and railroads to San Diego’s port and airport, and military installations. “I think we’ve only begun to scratch the surface” of vulnerabilities, said Emily Young, the Foundation’s environment director. The Foundation is also funding technical assistance to local governments for climate change planning through the nonprofit ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability.
The City of Santa Cruz is just beginning work on a plan for adapting to the effects of climate change, including sea-level rise. Researchers at the University of California, Santa Cruz, will assess the city’s vulnerabilities, including potential economic impacts, and propose adaptation strategies. In the future, the City may collaborate with Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties on a regional approach for Monterey Bay, with the help of local universities and research centers, said Ross Clark, the City’s climate change action coordinator. “It would be really great if we could get some guidance from the state,” Clark said.
In response to the need for site-specific information and guidelines, the Ocean Protection Council (OPC), Coastal Commission, and California Energy Commission have been working to develop some. A new report by the Pacific Institute, funded by the OPC, Caltrans, and the Energy Commission, identifies areas that are most at risk for flooding and bluff erosion along the entire coastline and around San Francisco Bay (see sidebar).
“This information will help decision-makers and the public understand and explore the potential risks over the coming decades, the scope and extent of the problem, and how and where to allocate funds for responding to climate change,” said Christine Blackburn, OPC program manager.